[Silver] = Silver, Nate. The Signal and the Noise: Why So Many Predictions Fail—but Some Don't. Penguin Press HC, 2012. ISBN: 9781594204111.
SES # | TOPICS | READINGS |
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1 | Introduction |
[Silver] Introduction and Chapter 1. Marcus, Gary, and Ernest Davis. "What Nate Silver Gets Wrong," The New Yorker, January 25, 2013. |
2 | Science Policy Review |
Jasanoff, Sheila. "Is Science Socially Constructed—And Can it Still Inform Public Policy?" Science and Engineering Ethics 2, no. 3 (1996): 263–76. Lubchenco, Jane. "Entering the Century of the Environment: A New Social Contract for Science." Science 279, no. 5350 (1998): 491–7. Optional reading for those without previous science policy experience:
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3 | Verification and Validation |
Roy, Christopher J., and William L. Oberkampf. "A Comprehensive Framework for Verification, Validation, and Uncertainty Quantification in Scientific Computing." Computer Methods in Applied Mechanics and Engineering 200, no. 25 (2011): 2131–44. Oreskes, Naomi, Kristin Shrader-Frechette, et al. "Verification, Validation, and Confirmation of Numerical Models in the Earth Sciences." Science 263, no. 5147 (1994): 641–6. Optional:Sargent, Robert G. "Verification and Validation of Simulation Models." In Proceedings of the 30th conference on Winter Simulation, pp. 121–30. IEEE Computer Society Press, 1998. |
4 | Evaluating Assessments |
Eckley, Noelle, William Clark, A. Farrell, Jill Jaeger, and David Stanners. Designing Effective Assessments: The Role of Participation, Science and Governance, and Focus. Vol. 26. Belfer Center for Science and International Affairs, John F. Kennedy School of Government, Harvard University, 2001. Murphy, Allan H. "What is a Good Forecast? An Essay on the Nature of Goodness in Weather Forecasting." Weather and Forecasting 8, no. 2 (1993): 281–93. [Silver] Chapter 4. |
5 |
Case Study: Acid Rain in Europe Case Study: Fisheries |
Tuinstra, Willemijn, LeenHordijk, and Markus Amann. "Using Computer Models in International Negotiations: The Case of Acidification in Europe." Environment 41, no. 9 (1999): 33–42. Hordijk, Leen. "Use of the RAINS Models in Acid Rain Negotiations in Europe." Environmental Science and Technology 25, no. 4 (1991): 596–603. Tuinstra, Willemijn, LeenHordijk, et al. "Moving Boundaries in Transboundary Air Pollution Co-Production of Science and Policy Under the Convention on Long Range Transboundary Air Pollution." Global Environmental Change 16, no. 4 (2006): 349–63. Eckley, Noelle. "Dependable Dynamism: Lessons for Designing Scientific Assessment Processes in Consensus Negotiations." Global Environmental Change 12, no. 1 (2002): 15–23. Botsford, Louis W., Juan Carlos Castilla, et al. "The Management of Fisheries and Marine Ecosystems." Science 277, no. 5325 (1997): 509–15. Lee, Kai N. "Appraising Adaptive Management." Conservation Ecology 3, no. 2 (1999): 3. McLain, Rebecca J., and Robert G. Lee. "Adaptive Management: Promises and Pitfalls." Environmental Management 20, no. 4 (1996): 437–48. Marshall, Michael. "Radical Reforms Might Not Save Europe's Fish Stocks." New Scientist, February 7, 2013. Dickie, Mure. "Scottish Fishermen Pin Hope on EU Reform," Financial Times, February 19, 2013. |
6 |
Humanitarian Logistics Guest Lecturer: Jarrod Goentzel, MIT Humanitarian Response Lab |
Darcy, James, and C. Hofmann.
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7 |
Case Study: Climate Change and the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change Guest Lecturer: Susan Solomon, MIT Professor of Atmospheric Chemistry & Climate Science |
Collins, William, Robert Colman, et al. "The Physical Science Behind Climate Change." Scientific American 297, no. 2 (2007): 64–73. Hegerl, Gabriele, Francis Zwiers, et al. "Patterns of Change: Whose Fingerprint is Seen in Gobal Warming?" Environmental Research Letters 6, no. 4 (2011): 044025. |
8 |
Energy Modeling Workshop Guest Lecturer: Travis Franck, Climate Interactive |
Gates, Bill. Bill Gates: Innovating to zero! [Video file]. February 2010. Retrieved from http://www.ted.com/talks/bill_gates.html. (Travis Franck mentions this presentation in his lecture and we discussed its flaws.) |
9 |
Transportation Guest Lecturer: Stephen Zoepf, MIT Sloan Auto Lab |
Material Specific to Corporate Average Fuel Economy Standards
Material Establishing General Principles for Regulatory Impact Analysis
"Circular A-4." Office of Management and Budget. Suggest skimming these sections:
Clinton, Bill. |
10 |
Class Case 1: NASA's Model Standards Discussion Across Cases | Readings for the class case studies are selected by the students. |
11 | Energy Modeling Simulation | No readings for this session. |
12 | System Modeling |
Sterman, John D. "Modeling Managerial Behavior: Misperceptions of Feedback in a Dynamic Decision Making Experiment." Management Science 35, no. 3 (1989): 321–39.
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13 | Class Case 2: Economic Modeling / Model Credibility Exercise |
Readings for the class case studies are selected by the students. [Silver] Chapters 6, and 11. Jaemyung Ahn, and Olivier de Weck, "Pilot Study: Assessment of SpaceNet 1.3 with NASA-STD-(I)-7009." (Cambridge, MA: Massachusetts Institute of Technology, 2007). |
14 | Class Case 3: Oil Spill / Risk Assessment Part I |
Readings for the class case studies are selected by the students.
Slovic, Paul. "Going Beyond the Red Book: The Sociopolitics of Risk." Human and Ecological Risk Assessment 9, no. 5 (2003): 1181–90.
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15 |
Models at the Environmental Protection Agency Guest Lecturer: Elsie Sunderland, Harvard School of Public Health |
McGarity, T. O., and W. E. Wagner. "Legal Aspects of the Regulatory Use of Environmental Modeling." Environmental Law Reporter: News and Analysis 33, no. 10 (2003): 10751–74. |
16 | Class Case 4: Clean Air / Risk Assessment Part II |
Readings for the class case studies are selected by the students. [Silver] Chapter 7. |
17 | Benefit-Cost Analysis |
Arrow, Kenneth J., Maureen L. Cropper, et al. "Is There a Role for Benefit-Cost Analysis in Environmental, Health, and Safety Regulation?" Environment and Development Economics 2, no. 2 (1997): 195–221. Pindyck, Robert S. "Uncertainty in Environmental Economics." Review of Environmental Economics and Policy 1, no. 1 (2007): 45–65. Goulder, Lawrence H., and Robert N. Stavins. "Discounting: An Eye on the Future." Nature 419, no. 6908 (2002): 673–4.
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18 | Class Case 5: Sports Statistics / Uncertainty Analysis I |
Readings for the class case studies are selected by the students. Risbey, James S., and MilindKandlikar. "Expressions of Likelihood and Confidence in the IPCC Uncertainty Assessment Process." Climatic Change 85, no. 1–2 (2007): 19–31. vanAsselt, Marjolein B. A., and Jan Rotmans. "Uncertainty in Integrated Assessment Modelling." Climatic Change 54, no. 1–2 (2002): 75–105. Thunnissen, Daniel P. |
19 | Uncertainty Analysis II / Model-Building Introduction |
Montalbo, Trisha, Jeremy Gregory, et al. Björklund, Anna E. "Survey of Approaches to Improve Reliability in LCA." The International Journal of Life Cycle Assessment 7, no. 2 (2002): 64–72.
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20 | Collaborative Model-Building Exercise | No readings for this session. |
21 | Interests and Politics: Participatory Methods and Stakeholders |
Wynne, Brian. "Public Uptake of Science: A Case for Institutional Reflexivity." Public Understanding of Science 2, no. 4 (1993): 321–37.
Sclove, Richard. Brugha, Ruairi, and Zsuzsa Varvasovszky. "Stakeholder Analysis: A Review." Health Policy and Planning 15, no. 3 (2000): 239–46. ———. "How to do (or not to do)… A Stakeholder Analysis." Health Policy and Planning 15, no. 3 (2000): 338–45. |
22 | Class Case 6: Cancer Screening / Lessons Across Cases Discussion | Readings for the class case studies are selected by the students. |
23 | Policy Memo Roundtable Practice (Optional) | No readings for this session. |
24 | Policy Memo Roundtable 1 | No readings for this session. |
25 | Policy Memo Roundtable 2 | No readings for this session. |
26 | Synthesis and Wrap-up | No readings for this session. |